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Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

Published 7 April 2020. Figures and rankings are as they stood then.

Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

PLOS ONE research article published on 31 March 2020 by expert forecaster Fotios Petropoulos and by the ‘father’ of forecasting Spyros Makridakis (Director of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center at UNIC).

It already has over 30,000 views/downloads in only 6 days of publication and is currently the most popular paper in the journal. The paper introduces an objective approach to answering the critical question of what the global impact of the novel coronavirus will be, suggesting a continuing increase (with an eventual slowdown) in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The paper is open access and available at the following link:

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0231236